Balakot – A war that didn’t happen, but everybody won.

Now that battle lines in the aftermath of Pulwama have pretty much drawn to a close, both the sides are out with their version of the Scorecard, each claiming its Victory

And since the twitter army has also retreated with its WtsApp allies and Newsroom warriors have calmed down, one can afford the risk of an objective view of the outcome.

Anger among the common public had made it important, if not necessary for the Modi govt. to take some tangible action.  And many a times, being victim of his words, Modi had to flex his proverbial 56 inches chest, else his strong man image would have taken major beating.

Jaish-e-Mohammed had claimed the responsibility of the attack and given that it operates out of safe havens in Pakistan, it was only natural for the blame to land squarely on its doorstep. And the talk from Imran Khan of punitive action against perpetrators if provided actionable evidence, despite all the sincerity it may have been appealed with, had a huge baggage of apathy from its previous governments on similar incidents. Tons of documents and dossiers were submitted by the earlier Indian govts that were best used as scrap for some petty change to help their ailing economy
It was tough, if not naive for Indian govt. to accept Imran Khan on face value.
One cannot deny that BJP sniffed an opportunity to drive Mileage and create a muscular narrative for election campaign that panders to its nationalist constituency. But it wasn’t not fraught with its risk. Things could have gone either way. But Risk taking has a certain currency in Politics and Modi is not averse to that.
But more importantly, India had to send out a strong message; that this proxy war comes at a cost; that the surgical strikes of 2016 were not a one- of act of retaliation but the beginning of a new approach. To paraphrase Stephen Cohen, Pakistan for long has held India and the world to ransom by putting the nuclear gun to its own head.  India needed to create a counter to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent.
First round clearly belonged to India. Having crossed the Pakistan border, dodging the Radars and Air Defense systems and bombing the targets. All the major global powers rallied behind India. And enough dopamine of the victory had been released by media for common public.

Now it was Pakistan’s turn to respond. Imran Khan had already declared his stance should India choses to attack. At the same time, his army spokesperson had started de-escalation even before striking back when it played down the impact of Indian strikes. The narrative of forcing Indian aircrafts to retreat, preventing them from causing any casualties or material damage managed the Public sentiments well. But the fact that Indian jets flew all the way deep into Pakistan, even if was for dropping leaflets, as tweeted by a Pakistani Journalist, was in itself embarrassing enough for a nation whose military wear nuclear bombs on its sleeves. To be fair, they had retaliate in some form
And in what ensued as Pakistan’s response, one Indian Pilot evacuated in POK after a dogfight. Abhinandan’s exemplary valour and composure won hearts in India, and also dominated the popular narrative back home. An already high decibel paean of Patriotism in the media reached its crescendo, muffling the fact that with his capture the plot had started turning in Pakistan’s favor. In the brief contest, the only irrefutable proof of having caused a damage to the enemy rested with Pakistan.  

Here was Imran’s opportunity to score a point and he played well by announcing the release of Indian Pilot. For all the talk of his large-heartedness, the fact remains that Pakistan was not in a position to escalate. With less than 17 billion dollar in foreign reserves, it would have been foolhardy, if not suicidal to go to war. And guarantees from Chinese, their new imperial lords were not forthcoming either.
For those who see Imran Khan as a paragon of India-Pak peace,  over-enthusiastically nominating him for the Nobel, would serve the logic better by recalling that throughout his electioneering he took jibes at Nawaz Sharif by calling him ‘Modi Ka yaar’ , denouncing latter for his so called ‘Soft corner’ for India.

Bound by Vienna  convention or not, his decision was informed by pragmatism and realities, and definitely not Morality. Pakistan had evened the scores by winning the second round of Optics, at least in their country and Global Media. As much as we in India might not like it, by choosing to address the country himself, Imran Khan also stole the limelight from Modi. So Imran Khan had nothing further to gain politically.
From here, truce was predictable and easy. Tensions had hit that spot in the escalation axis from where both Imran Khan and Modi could claim political points; It was a unique contest that ended in a tie, where politicians from both sides of the border could claim victory.

 And media played its part by keeping the public intoxicated with uninterrupted supply of adrenaline and notional pride. Enough for them to forget the real problems of life.